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The “Sports Betting Whale” who won tens of millions of dollars betting on sports answers the question: Do chase betting strategies and Martingale type of betting systems work when betting on sports?
There are only two valid reasons to increase your bet size when betting on sports: 1. You have higher confidence level that the next bet has higher winning probability than your previous bet. 2. You have a larger bankroll than you previously did, thus affording you a higher level of risk tolerance.
In sports betting, progressive staking sizes in bankroll management, otherwise known as chasing, can increase your expected win value only in cases where outcomes in a sequence of games may be correlated. For example, when a sports team loses one or two consecutive games under specific situations, there is an observed correlating effect on the outcome of their next immediate game at a statistically significant level. Therefore, a limited chase betting strategy applied under certain conditions can be immensely profitable.
The key here is that you need to use the chasing strategy only on games where outcomes are likely to have observed correlating effects.
The Whale also gives his free sports picks for today. He is possibly Nevada’s winningest sports bettor in the last 25-30 years.
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